Regen SW Remind us of Falling Peak UK Electricity Demand

As I pointed out several months ago, and Regen SW remind us, peak winter electricity demand in UK is falling.

However, the shape of the demand curve remains much the same - in 2016/17 the winter peak at around 5:30 PM was still 7GW higher than the daytime plateau - domestic DSR is still under 10% of the way up the adoption curve.
This is what can make a big difference if we continue to engage with each other. Let's raise the awareness of the issue beyond the 3 million or so consumers who seem to be doing something about it.

The crunch will come as electric vehicles start to push demand back up again - then we will need to flatten the curve to avoid another 2 or 3 large nuclear power stations at a cost of over £50 billion.

Gandhi - "everything you do is absolutely insignificant, but it is very important you do it."

It's time for a little bit of philosophy!
We often think "wouldn't it be nice if...." and then say something that we would like to happen, that would happen if many people took action, but we feel powerless to cause or bring about.
Domestic Demand Side response was one of these for me.
Until a couple of years ago, I did not believe it was possible to get people to shift the times at which they use appliances to reduce UK peak electricity demand.

But it is now starting to happen. The people with PV systems or Economy Seven tariffs are not only doing it, they are increasingly realising the collective benefits of doing so, and the conversation has changed. The word is spreading.

Gandhi went further than this in what he said.

Not only are you only one of thirty million electricity consuming households, but everything you do is ultimately and inherently insignificant - paradoxically this empowers us to take action just because it's the right thing to do,without any expectation of outcome. In my experience, the results can be unpredictable, exciting, and transformative.

Go on, give it a try!

How Far up the Adoption Curve for Domestic DSR are we?

There are around 30 million electricity consumers in UK and as many of them as possible need to be shifting their time-of-use away from peaks if we are to avoid an extremely costly upgrade of the distribution system , as well as a ramped-up rollout of nuclear at £8,000/kW and rising.
That's the challenge. But how many are already doing so?

There are in UK around

• 800,000 solar PV installation owners or tenants, most of whom take advantage of "free" electricity when the sun shines
• 1.7 million storage heating installations, on economy 7 tariffs, using night-time electricity.
• 0.1 million heat pumps, many of which are on smart connections
• A few hundred thousand people like you and I who know that DSR is a good idea

So around 10% of domestic users, 3 million, have some awareness of the value of time-shifting, and most are at least taking some action where it is to their financial benefit.

THE ADOPTION CURVE

So we are  at the end of the early adoption phase for awareness - the 10% of innovators and early adopters needed to get a technology off the ground.

Of course awareness and appropriate action are not the same thing, but awareness is a necessary precursor to action. 

Let's keep pumping the message out!

I am, are you?

Is Solar in UK Like Solar in California?

On 3rd May, California had a capacity crisis. Their hydro power reserve had run out of water because of the drought, there was little wind, and the peak demand even in air-conditioned California was after dark. Demand side response came to the rescue thanks largely to Enernoc, and 800 MW was lopped off the  34 GW or so of peak demand, preventing large-scale outages. (The green net demand curve is net of solar PV and of DSR)

But look at how much of the near-peak demand is met by solar.

In UK , in winter, this would not happen. Our peak demand occurs several hours after the watery winter sun has already set. 

All the more reason, then, to be concerned about getting as much time-shifting as possible out of the winter peak. The alternatives to this are:

• Power outages
• More expensive nuclear electricity
• More carbon emitting gas-fired electricity
• Expensive and polluting storage
• The energy trilemma writ large - unaffordable, unsustainable, unreliable electricity

So - be an early adopter, get ahead of the game, and prepare for next winter by planning to shift all water heating appliances out of the 3-8pm peak! Hundreds of thousands already time-shift, do you?

Where is Storage Needed?

Is electricity storage a good idea? Where is it needed?

• In the countryside, where the solar and wind power are generated?
• Or in towns and cities, where most of the electricity is consumed?

Peak demand is an issue in the cities, but handling PV on a sunny day is a rural issue - so we probably will need both - but the more we shift our demand, the less expensive storage we will need - happy time-shifting!

If we don't have more Nuclear, how will Peak Winter Demand be met?

The National Audit Office is questioning the value for money to consumers of Hinkley C.
What is the alternative?

• Not more solar or wind, which are intermittent or nonexistent at peak times
• Not more gas, which is a carbon emitter.
• Not more hydro, there aren't enough rivers or mountains in UK

Which leaves

• Undersea links to the continent, i.e. let someone else worry about it
• Storage, which is expensive and some say carbon emitting 
•  Time-shifting, as I've always said

Simple but not easy unless we all do our bit. Tens of thousands are already doing it, are you?

Make Hay while the Sun Shines

Domestic DSR is about sufficiency.
If we all do our bit for flattening demand, we will need far fewer new power stations, of whatever type.
It also means using renewable electricity when the sun shines or the wind blows.
But we need to know when there is a lot of slack in the system.
Hence the Time Cheese.
How helpful would it be to you to have one?