Tuesday, 4 September 2018
Note that the trough is the same, so the curve shape has got worse.
I note they are only allocating a peak of 1GW to electric vehicles, which at 3kW per vehicle is only 330,000 vehicles, or 1% of the present vehicle population.
Most of the peak increase will come, they say, from heat pumps. Storage of heat is relatively easy and cheap, all you need is a larger hot water tank. These are common in biomass heating systems.
How do we publicise the vital necessity for domestic load shifting, awareness of which needs to accelerate now to meet future demands?
At the moment it's just word of mouth, so keep on telling people about it!
Tuesday, 14 August 2018
Here's a heat wave worth looking at!
Air conditioning uses over 30% of the peak electricity on a hot day in California - and by time-shifting the cooling using stored ice, in some buildings the peak can be completely ironed out.
What's more, the air conditioning capacity needed is reduced, as it's working for longer to produce the same amount of cooling.
As air conditioning becomes more prevalent in UK and Europe, this is becoming an increasingly relevant way to avoid peaks in summer.
Conversely, in winter, if we are to use electricity for heating, it will become worthwhile to store hot water or even steam to reduce peak consumption.
Tuesday, 31 July 2018
One flaw- they suggest that Europe could be supplied from the Sahara desert - but as we know, peak consumption in Europe occurs after dark, and the sun has set even in the sunny Sahara at that time.
All is not lost however - the deserts of USA are still sunny at peak times of European consumption, so all we need is a link from the USA to Europe - see my blog on an Arctic Circle supergrid.
If you don't like the idea of linking the world up like this, then you and the rest of us are going to have to shift a whole lot of consumption out of the after dark peak. Have you told your friends yet?
When I suggest this, people often say storage is the answer - which at the moment is much more costly than nuclear.
So I say Reassess, Reduce, Reschedule!
Monday, 25 June 2018
Salt River Project, or SRP as it is now more commonly known, is an innovative electricity supplier in Arizona USA. They have a wide range of demand-related tariffs, including a time-of-use tariff which has at its most extreme, a factor of three difference between peak and off-peak costs per kWh in July and August.
This highlights the value and in this case the relative ease of substantial time-shifting of air-conditioning. Environmentally conscious Arizonans have a number of options:
- Build houses with high thermal mass as well as high insulation, so that cooling can be done outside of peak times, and advantage can be taken of the large differences between day and night temperatures in desert areas.
- Use storage aircon to build up ice as a store of coolness before peak times.
- Start cooling the house well before peak times and tolerate some increase in temperature during the peak.
- Use PV to generate electricity for cooling
Coincidentally, Arizona is where PV can best be generated to meet UK's winter peak, as their solar midday occurs during our evening peak. So the PV they use during their summer could supply our electricity in winter.
If you want to avoid the cost of a Northern hemisphere supergrid to allow this, then shift your time of use and get others to do the same!
Monday, 21 May 2018
Centrica (British Gas to most of us) is going on the offensive with CHP.
It makes sense:
- Their business is selling gas
- The most efficient way to use gas is to produce both heat and electricity
- New gas-fired power stations are decreasingly attractive to them because of the lower load factors in the present energy mix
Do we want gas CHP? It still produces carbon. But how else are we to heat our homes?
Heat is the biggest challenge to reducing carbon in UK - perhaps the best is the enemy of the good, and we should embrace CHP at least for the moment.
Tuesday, 20 February 2018
Bridget Woodman of Exeter Energy Policy Group and Laura Sandys of Challenging Ideas put forward the spider chart above to demonstrate how the electricity industry is (dis)organised.
What if consumers could operate in a transparent and market-oriented model? Would we see more rational buying decisions throughout the system?
Or could we even see the time when the electricity system operated with no burden on the taxpayer, appropriate levels of reliability and at progressively lower levels of carbon output that put our current performance to shame? Would the "trilemma" become an obsolete concept?
There are those who think so.
I hope they are right!
For the time being, keep time shifting away from the peak!
After an inexorable rise over most of the 20th Century, peak electricity demand in UK peaked in around 2002 at just over 60GW, plateaued until 2011, and since then has at last started to fall. This year it will be around 50GW, back to where it was in 1977.
But as my wife's uncle used to say, let's not get too euphoric.
Peak demand is still around 10GW above average demand, with an opportunity cost of £80 billion at current firm low carbon capacity costs.
Deindustrialisation and more efficient appliances have been the main drivers for peak reduction so far, with some help from industrial triad charges avoidance, but not domestic demand response.
Domestic demand response, not more wind or solar, are the best bet for reducing this peak winter demand further.
It will also reduce the need for some of the 30 or so new nuclear power stations we will otherwise require to supply the electric cars that will replace our petrol and diesel ones.