tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-46727453186139897092024-03-06T00:39:31.984+00:00We Can Make Electricity Cheaper, Keep it Reliable and Reduce Carbon Emissions.Everyone has the power to transform electricity and reduce costs, carbon and outages by shifting when we use non-time-sensitive appliances from the 3-8pm peak to the midnight-7am trough - shift your dishwashers, washing machines, tumble driers and immersion heaters.
Solve the energy trilemma now!
Please comment!tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.comBlogger113125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-7849479334830881212021-06-04T12:31:00.000+01:002021-06-04T12:31:04.055+01:00How much new capacity is needed to supply motorway charging points?<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0grUyByIlf6e2fDJ5tL0Z8Zp8LveskxP_BG-W5q5IHx_MyRaSywQPx-6ofLQBz4VmeqOZYytLydiBa7UiEfVdXO3vl4wM3pAfIfsjiqLTBi982ZjR729gPt3ZMh0gWztUw5LPoAUdrA8/s813/Ecotricity+motorway+pumps.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="813" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0grUyByIlf6e2fDJ5tL0Z8Zp8LveskxP_BG-W5q5IHx_MyRaSywQPx-6ofLQBz4VmeqOZYytLydiBa7UiEfVdXO3vl4wM3pAfIfsjiqLTBi982ZjR729gPt3ZMh0gWztUw5LPoAUdrA8/w400-h215/Ecotricity+motorway+pumps.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p>This just in from Ecotricity, my green electricity supplier. I'm delighted to see the progress the are making in their rollout of motorway charging points for EV's.<p></p><p>However - is National Grid letting us know the capacity and distribution implications of this activity?</p><p>One service station has a peak capacity requirement of 12x350kW=4.2 megawatts. </p><p>There are 158 such service stations in UK, requiring 663 megawatts of peak capacity, two thirds of a Gigawatt.</p><p>And that's only enough to charge 1,896 vehicles at a time.</p><p>By 2030, several million electric vehicles will be coming on stream per year, all needing charging most days.</p><p>How much extra capacity will they need? </p>tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-63402866415808719932020-11-30T11:21:00.002+00:002020-11-30T11:27:22.350+00:00Domestic electricity consumption – how can we manage it?<p> </p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOM9zG7bA47fH8wqQ5mN-v8aOV0IooQvs_-bnUYSqTqgpkJw6sECE_hwGly-UgDw6PpgjeFwdWEd52nvwn9elYhQIMcungWER1XHTK3vl5aJATGQQdePNXvAKuUwZSvakEbmCyAg9Q-Ko/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="340" data-original-width="605" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOM9zG7bA47fH8wqQ5mN-v8aOV0IooQvs_-bnUYSqTqgpkJw6sECE_hwGly-UgDw6PpgjeFwdWEd52nvwn9elYhQIMcungWER1XHTK3vl5aJATGQQdePNXvAKuUwZSvakEbmCyAg9Q-Ko/w501-h282/image.png" width="501" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">First, the good news. Peak UK electricity consumption is
falling year-on-year.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This is for two main reasons:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Appliances are becoming more efficient<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Industry and some commercial users are becoming
more adept at managing their demand, particularly time-of-use.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So, what’s the bad news?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Domestic demand is becoming more peaky because
consumers are not motivated to manage it.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Increases in demand will increasingly be under
the control of domestic consumers, as EV’s and heat pumps are rolled out.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Unless something changes, future demand will become both
bigger and more peaky, as unmotivated domestic consumers use more electricity.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This is a behavioural issue as much as a technical one.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The work to change behavioural patterns needs to happen
before the mass take-up of new appliances, not after.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We are not helped in this by the almost complete absence of domestic
time-of-use tariffs, which will need to become near-universal by the time EV’s
and heat pumps achieve significant market penetration.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Domestic behaviour change takes time, we need to start now.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-18391112006249422202020-10-20T11:53:00.000+01:002020-10-20T11:53:06.614+01:00Can we do more to reduce peak demand caused by electric kettles?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizy00gub19lbE_MQQ7kHtpja_059SQqdNgWGyuzL2T-z1Fkt1Cql9nJxWaQEkuGcxPTZMu_W9s5Ez_h02x97yxSQAo0MsPjZZ-6o4dX1dev2TvKZImS1ebfL5K3n0D1Pngl8CKL-0JRk8/s2048/The-Best-Electric-Kettle-11042018.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizy00gub19lbE_MQQ7kHtpja_059SQqdNgWGyuzL2T-z1Fkt1Cql9nJxWaQEkuGcxPTZMu_W9s5Ez_h02x97yxSQAo0MsPjZZ-6o4dX1dev2TvKZImS1ebfL5K3n0D1Pngl8CKL-0JRk8/w444-h249/The-Best-Electric-Kettle-11042018.jpg" width="444" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p> In 1990, there was a 2.8 GW surge on the UK grid caused by consumer switching on their electric kettles after an England vs. Germany football game.</p><p>Happily, in the 21st century, the maximum surge has been only half that, 1.4 GW after two games in July 2018.</p><p>These surges usually occur in summer and are unlikely to coincide with peak demand , so the impact on capacity requirement will be less than the surge, or possibly none at all. </p><p>However, 1.4 GW is only half a million kettles, and there are 25 million electric kettles in UK. We are very keen on having quick access to a cup of tea.</p><p>Other research suggests that on average we heat twice as much water as we need to, perhaps with an average time of 120 seconds, which could therefore be reduced to 60 seconds simply by only heating the water we need for a cup of tea.</p><p>We drink an average of four cups of tea per day each. Each one is taking 0.1 kWh to boil if we heat twice as much water as we need. Seventy million people people consuming 0.4 kWh per day is one heck of a lot of juice! 28 Gigawatt hours to be precise. that's over a Gigawatt even if consumption is spread evenly over 24 hours. In practice of course it is likely to be at least double this at times during the day, so by reducing the kettle fill to half, a continuous Gigawatt could be saved all day. Eight billion pounds worth of nuclear capacity, even without avoiding the peak.</p><p>That's a saving worth having! </p>tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-61109254467350215742020-04-22T10:53:00.001+01:002020-04-29T15:52:08.180+01:00Is thermal storage a serious potential contributor to electricity supply flattening?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNi6ueQQezQNCdzMrButAS0w4YHiEMSuBNfwO5OZ6ma3wl95oNBRQSmqjT90Mgx3J6HW7HR8vyBJ9GV8U9qaoS6I6o2bMC6bIwkcj5pEZWHD6HufWwFOavJvbtbu-T18wZFgLQEAxWyqw/s1600/domestic+heat+store.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="382" data-original-width="523" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNi6ueQQezQNCdzMrButAS0w4YHiEMSuBNfwO5OZ6ma3wl95oNBRQSmqjT90Mgx3J6HW7HR8vyBJ9GV8U9qaoS6I6o2bMC6bIwkcj5pEZWHD6HufWwFOavJvbtbu-T18wZFgLQEAxWyqw/s320/domestic+heat+store.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
In managing electricity demand, we are normally concerned with avoiding peak demand, in order to reduce strain on total capacity.<br />
But with intermittent renewables, we also have a potential excess supply problem, when output from wind and solar is high, and demand is low.<br />
Large industrial users are good at taking advantage of such situations, but the domestic sector, where peaky demand is now most prevalent, is not.<br />
In Canada, the electricity supply companies are known to supply large water heaters to domestic consumers. The suppliers control when electricity is used to heat these stores.<br />
Would it be worth doing the same in UK?<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Heat generally has a lower value than electricity per kWh - except in times of potential overgeneration.</li>
<li> Creating solar and wind capacity at a level to minimise gas generation rather than to fit within existing capacity constraints would mean long periods of oversupply, requiring storage, supply constraint,or dumping</li>
<li><a href="https://www.energyproltd.com/" target="_blank">ESCO's</a> are now looking at thermal storage as a way to manage renewables, particularly in SME's.</li>
</ul>
<div>
Can it happen at scale before we have a substantially strengthened grid?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-79843738605368001952020-04-08T10:51:00.001+01:002020-04-08T15:39:08.423+01:00Is it more environmentally friendly to use electricity when the grid is showing low average carbon emissions?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjldYRIcDgGb442hRqEcjL0inA8Cf6edVTTzYih4zBgx6Qlvwy_QryIjmrsFkR3naeKswEHEGYBo5F_KMp1-jLf0zO5gv3HpcBJDoIZxuia83e5Cn3o0eviObWEKRkZMVvhmgc0rqpP1Iw/s1600/National+grid+ESO+app.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="816" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjldYRIcDgGb442hRqEcjL0inA8Cf6edVTTzYih4zBgx6Qlvwy_QryIjmrsFkR3naeKswEHEGYBo5F_KMp1-jLf0zO5gv3HpcBJDoIZxuia83e5Cn3o0eviObWEKRkZMVvhmgc0rqpP1Iw/s320/National+grid+ESO+app.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
The National Grid in UK has a very useful<b> <a href="https://apps.apple.com/gb/app/the-national-grid-eso-app/id1469935379" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">app</span> </a></b>that tells us what the carbon emissions per unit generated are. Clearly this will be at its lowest at times of high wind or solar generation, and relatively low gas generation.<br />
The implication is that it is better to use electricity when the average is low.<br />
But is that actually so?<br />
Unless we are in danger of shutting down wind or solar generation for lack of demand, which almost never happens in UK at the moment, each additional unit used comes from the supply that is responding to demand, which is currently almost always gas in UK.<br />
Every unit of solar or wind electricty generated is always used. Switching something on at times of high renewable generation makes no difference!<br />
So, when is the best time to use electricity?<br />
The focus should continue to be on flattening the demand for gas, which will make gas generation more efficient, and ultimately reduce the capacity requirement for gas generation.<br />
If you want to be sophisticated about it, track the gas power station output, for example from<span style="color: blue;"> <a href="http://grid.iamkate.com/" target="_blank"><b><span style="color: blue;">Kate Morley's excellent site </span></b></a></span><br />
Otherwise, the best thing to do is to avoid the winter peak from around 3-8pm, and try to shift non-time-sensitive consumption from the day into the night-time trough from around midnight to 6am.tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-13324027643792006762018-09-04T15:17:00.001+01:002018-09-04T15:31:20.929+01:00Low Carbon Technologies set to make Peak Demand Worse! <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAfpsXbNNx8kEOgXK4vQv4milb3uYcSObmRFRc46MCgDPYfQHQiTSu4QIppeCYNx312uua0wwGj9EZz7T33EEjhynwu2wWviy0dBRbjT38Fb8mpotK2vgPPg3vNiSLnPaZEtgjJCgCxrI/s1600/Peak+demand+curve+2030.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="484" data-original-width="645" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAfpsXbNNx8kEOgXK4vQv4milb3uYcSObmRFRc46MCgDPYfQHQiTSu4QIppeCYNx312uua0wwGj9EZz7T33EEjhynwu2wWviy0dBRbjT38Fb8mpotK2vgPPg3vNiSLnPaZEtgjJCgCxrI/s640/Peak+demand+curve+2030.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
According to BEIS (which includes what was DECC) without demand side response (DSR) we will increase peak domestic electricity demand from 24 to 31 GW, an increase of 7GW or 29% by 2030.<br />
Note that the trough is the same, so the curve shape has got worse.<br />
I note they are only allocating a peak of 1GW to electric vehicles, which at 3kW per vehicle is only 330,000 vehicles, or 1% of the present vehicle population.<br />
Most of the peak increase will come, they say, from heat pumps. Storage of heat is relatively easy and cheap, all you need is a larger hot water tank. These are common in biomass heating systems.<br />
How do we publicise the vital necessity for domestic load shifting, awareness of which needs to accelerate now to meet future demands?<br />
At the moment it's just word of mouth, so keep on telling people about it!<br />
<br />tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-50315953545062157372018-08-14T15:24:00.001+01:002018-08-14T15:24:36.156+01:00Is the Heat Wave over?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiThcqOrdl8RVwJ2W-eDlD2I6qp28IdggoMKDvT9ZV6tJ7jD_SdJd5TqLWujRh7a6seTp087ae9WR9JZ-Wfg7grySGOy66Iui-SbgUaHNPHdGoIjU1YAUAvXWMq7vrqmhop-3ROA1mTn0w/s1600/ice+storage+for+Aircon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="348" data-original-width="788" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiThcqOrdl8RVwJ2W-eDlD2I6qp28IdggoMKDvT9ZV6tJ7jD_SdJd5TqLWujRh7a6seTp087ae9WR9JZ-Wfg7grySGOy66Iui-SbgUaHNPHdGoIjU1YAUAvXWMq7vrqmhop-3ROA1mTn0w/s640/ice+storage+for+Aircon.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
Here's a heat wave worth looking at!<br />
Air conditioning uses over 30% of the peak electricity on a hot day in California - and by time-shifting the cooling using stored ice, in some buildings the peak can be completely ironed out.<br />
What's more, the air conditioning capacity needed is reduced, as it's working for longer to produce the same amount of cooling.<br />
As air conditioning becomes more prevalent in UK and Europe, this is becoming an increasingly relevant way to avoid peaks in summer.<br />
Conversely, in winter, if we are to use electricity for heating, it will become worthwhile to store hot water or even steam to reduce peak consumption.<br />
<br />tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-89862073869541565612018-07-31T11:55:00.003+01:002018-07-31T11:55:58.491+01:00Could Solar PV Power the World?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKxG73xcdMUFy_inC1dytDtHoUGAtGRgD_ITnFgJFWNXPWpZSbIEasrwO_wlH_SEP1k2pWFm3Fj-umArB8V47-eheyNhbEnQiYbhtEhZhtY05Vs_w-3J_F-vF5Fzvx0fLAq2xHrvPfqdk/s1600/area+to+power+the+world.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="559" data-original-width="798" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKxG73xcdMUFy_inC1dytDtHoUGAtGRgD_ITnFgJFWNXPWpZSbIEasrwO_wlH_SEP1k2pWFm3Fj-umArB8V47-eheyNhbEnQiYbhtEhZhtY05Vs_w-3J_F-vF5Fzvx0fLAq2xHrvPfqdk/s640/area+to+power+the+world.png" width="640" /></a></div>
This map from data supplied by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and interpreted by Land Art Generator shows the area required to provide all the electricity needed in the world from solar PV.<br />
<br />
One flaw- they suggest that Europe could be supplied from the Sahara desert - but as we know, peak consumption in Europe occurs after dark, and the sun has set even in the sunny Sahara at that time.<br />
<br />
All is not lost however - the deserts of USA are still sunny at peak times of European consumption, so all we need is a link from the USA to Europe - see my blog on an Arctic Circle supergrid.<br />
<br />
If you don't like the idea of linking the world up like this, then you and the rest of us are going to have to shift a whole lot of consumption out of the after dark peak. Have you told your friends yet?<br />
When I suggest this, people often say storage is the answer - which at the moment is much more costly than nuclear.<br />
<br />
So I say Reassess, Reduce, Reschedule!<br />
<br />tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-80664778630501169732018-06-25T12:12:00.003+01:002018-10-10T15:02:38.492+01:00It's Hot in Arizona!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghWh7l2wfFKAaO2yMbFCMySd8Hr4_fd5zNGXqy0WdkZK5LH5j7f1w9D_sLpFRseiJkTBpEN3DdEpt8oJBHW2QXpZyrHU29VgKuys3BvI8_lBWwKQ9mHct2yeYvHQpjzhi7G7Jzw-5vVw8/s1600/Salt+River+TOU+tariff+summer.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="754" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghWh7l2wfFKAaO2yMbFCMySd8Hr4_fd5zNGXqy0WdkZK5LH5j7f1w9D_sLpFRseiJkTBpEN3DdEpt8oJBHW2QXpZyrHU29VgKuys3BvI8_lBWwKQ9mHct2yeYvHQpjzhi7G7Jzw-5vVw8/s320/Salt+River+TOU+tariff+summer.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><a href="https://www.srpnet.com/menu/about/generalinformation.aspx" target="_blank">Salt River Project</a>, or SRP as it is now more commonly known, is an innovative
electricity supplier in Arizona USA. They have a wide range of <a href="https://www.srpnet.com/menu/electricres/priceplans.aspx" target="_blank">demand-related tariffs</a>,
including a time-of-use tariff which has at its most extreme, a factor of three
difference between peak and off-peak costs per kWh in July and August.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">This
highlights the value and in this case the relative ease of substantial
time-shifting of air-conditioning. Environmentally conscious Arizonans have a
number of options:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Build houses with high
thermal mass as well as high insulation, so that cooling can be done
outside of peak times, and advantage can be taken of the large differences between day and night temperatures in desert areas.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Use storage aircon to build
up ice as a store of coolness before peak times.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Start cooling the house
well before peak times and tolerate some increase in temperature during
the peak.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Use PV to generate electricity
for cooling <o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Coincidentally, Arizona is where PV can best be generated to meet UK's
winter peak, as their solar midday occurs during our evening peak. So the PV
they use during their summer could supply our electricity in winter.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">If you want to avoid the cost of a <a href="https://theintelligentplug.blogspot.com/2016/07/is-northern-global-grid-link-feasible.html" target="_blank">Northern hemisphere supergrid </a>to
allow this, then shift your time of use and get others to do the same!</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></div>
<br />tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-70437952177635165792018-05-21T11:31:00.000+01:002018-05-21T11:32:37.518+01:00Centrica - British Gas - and Combined Heat and Power<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivNWQEw_lnTzvecV9h9tH1a-vrbDiiCFryYGJNnmuMPB-PViMU4GYab1p8yuy1iZxoXRdH2vTX72q26a6QxLAw_PYf6iq3Z4-RI-n-GOrYnvJejVOicqsyd_-dHLhW800AficCcyxBskE/s1600/centrica+CHP.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="593" data-original-width="1091" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivNWQEw_lnTzvecV9h9tH1a-vrbDiiCFryYGJNnmuMPB-PViMU4GYab1p8yuy1iZxoXRdH2vTX72q26a6QxLAw_PYf6iq3Z4-RI-n-GOrYnvJejVOicqsyd_-dHLhW800AficCcyxBskE/s320/centrica+CHP.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Centrica (British Gas to most of us) is going on the offensive with <a href="https://www.centricabusinesssolutions.com/performance/chp?utm_source=ema&utm_medium=SolusEmail&utm_campaign=Q2_Performance&utm_term=Email" target="_blank">CHP.</a><br />
It makes sense:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Their business is selling gas</li>
<li>The most efficient way to use gas is to produce both heat and electricity</li>
<li>New gas-fired power stations are decreasingly attractive to them because of the lower load factors in the present energy mix</li>
</ul>
<div>
Do we want gas CHP? It still produces carbon. But how else are we to heat our homes?</div>
<div>
Heat is the biggest challenge to reducing carbon in UK - perhaps the best is the enemy of the good, and we should embrace CHP at least for the moment.</div>
tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-32480584079338691702018-02-20T15:58:00.000+00:002018-02-20T16:15:42.570+00:00The Web we Weave<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm2f6QOk5IqxJulLkPE-BmCAstAGbIa0NHEMt9E-is0XfKE5520ktKn3y_rJ0Rl_bGS1NMyz20XRB_6OfmzaNwl8ktEm8dyGtofeVQTDviR_LlR6CECS2Hsn0XtVsIFpm4ksx62cmQ-_4/s1600/png+spider.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="965" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm2f6QOk5IqxJulLkPE-BmCAstAGbIa0NHEMt9E-is0XfKE5520ktKn3y_rJ0Rl_bGS1NMyz20XRB_6OfmzaNwl8ktEm8dyGtofeVQTDviR_LlR6CECS2Hsn0XtVsIFpm4ksx62cmQ-_4/s640/png+spider.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Bridget Woodman of<a href="https://blogs.exeter.ac.uk/energy/"> Exeter Energy Policy Group</a> and Laura Sandys of<a href="http://www.challenging-ideas.com/"> Challenging Ideas</a> put forward the spider chart above to demonstrate how the electricity industry is (dis)organised.<br />
<br />
What if consumers could operate in a transparent and market-oriented model? Would we see more rational buying decisions throughout the system?<br />
<br />
Or could we even see the time when the electricity system operated with no burden on the taxpayer, appropriate levels of reliability and at progressively lower levels of carbon output that put our current performance to shame? Would the "trilemma" become an obsolete concept?<br />
<br />
There are those who think so.<br />
<br />
<i> </i>I hope they are right!<br />
<i><br /></i>
For the time being, keep time shifting away from the peak!tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-74615671509873369362018-02-20T11:03:00.001+00:002018-02-20T11:03:18.602+00:00Modest Peak Consumption decline mirrored by Capacity decline - can we do more?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaad5-kfLJzqfpDevt92kgRLCGYDkGtA5OMDYKTmkH-B6j5bRyfNDukDViaUdq69svDkoco0JG8OVDbwLNA1xfs0yPksl-PxJU1Zl9amkUESCGI0Zp_ccxYhhqR8920A7dei5-iNAT1OQ/s1600/UK+electricity+capacity+margin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="470" data-original-width="569" height="528" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaad5-kfLJzqfpDevt92kgRLCGYDkGtA5OMDYKTmkH-B6j5bRyfNDukDViaUdq69svDkoco0JG8OVDbwLNA1xfs0yPksl-PxJU1Zl9amkUESCGI0Zp_ccxYhhqR8920A7dei5-iNAT1OQ/s640/UK+electricity+capacity+margin.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/historical-electricity-data-1920-to-2011">Electricity data from BEIS</a></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
After an inexorable rise over most of the 20th Century, peak electricity demand in UK peaked in around 2002 at just over 60GW, plateaued until 2011, and since then has at last started to fall. This year it will be around 50GW, back to where it was in 1977.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
But as my wife's uncle used to say, let's not get too euphoric.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Peak demand is still around 10GW above average demand, with an opportunity cost of £80 billion at current firm low carbon capacity costs.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Deindustrialisation and more efficient appliances have been the main drivers for peak reduction so far, with some help from industrial triad charges avoidance, but not domestic demand response.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Domestic demand response, not more wind or solar, are the best bet for reducing this peak winter demand further.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
It will also reduce the need for some of the 30 or so new nuclear power stations we will otherwise require to supply the electric cars that will replace our petrol and diesel ones.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-44719455102201716142018-02-05T16:32:00.000+00:002018-02-05T16:32:51.328+00:00Is Small Nuclear Beautiful? <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUJcDAQRLR0mBUwoVxOuFcgX2sSGRTPqZGv_eMiH_UPmzKAY7l3_2pZUc4UYMdkle5E4mY0F6XEi9XUI7KDQaD0L3fmWfztUCPULRidl0e2p7n3QcpN8ZlObSeDnuk92oZ3VQwGx4_-vs/s1600/small+nuclear.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="473" data-original-width="659" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUJcDAQRLR0mBUwoVxOuFcgX2sSGRTPqZGv_eMiH_UPmzKAY7l3_2pZUc4UYMdkle5E4mY0F6XEi9XUI7KDQaD0L3fmWfztUCPULRidl0e2p7n3QcpN8ZlObSeDnuk92oZ3VQwGx4_-vs/s640/small+nuclear.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Some say that the reason nuclear is so expensive is that we have gone way beyond the optimum size for cost, and we should be aiming at much smaller reactors - say 50 MW.<br />
These can be built, transported and housed in much cheaper ways, using existing technologies.<br />
If you still don't like or trust nuclear, then what other solution do you you have than to substantially reduce peak demand? There is no technology on the horizon in UK that is cheaper, more reliable and less carbon intensive than simply shifting demand away from the peak- intermittent renewables are irrelevant in this context, because the cost and carbon footprint of the necessary storage is worse than nuclear I assert...<br />
<br />
so GET SHIFTING!!tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-7243783587811687612018-01-29T12:14:00.001+00:002018-01-29T12:16:21.215+00:00BEIS Capacity Projections - are they Serious about how Little Firm Supply we Need?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi6H0DhzwBuFqE4PmtM54mDp7_S5kcaaB6RG0OVcPVsjlXiSp_XliOcP4fLEQFJX9mhHLB5b313YLiQmW7uaXg_hX7tzer3aYVHW9ormvfC6CdcNUgkdYUM7FONu8BbmszKo3-Om7tNak/s1600/BEIS+2017+toal+electricity+capacity+projections.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="402" data-original-width="869" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi6H0DhzwBuFqE4PmtM54mDp7_S5kcaaB6RG0OVcPVsjlXiSp_XliOcP4fLEQFJX9mhHLB5b313YLiQmW7uaXg_hX7tzer3aYVHW9ormvfC6CdcNUgkdYUM7FONu8BbmszKo3-Om7tNak/s640/BEIS+2017+toal+electricity+capacity+projections.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Oh dear, even worse than a graph - a table!<br />
What does it tell us?<br />
<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2017">BEIS, the Government department in UK responsible for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, projects how much electricity capacity they think we will need over the next 20 years.</a><br />
Where do we start to dissect this and make sense of it?<br />
First, there is a 30% increase over the period in total capacity, from 110 to 142GW.<br />
But this includes renewables, which are almost all intermittent, and can not be relied upon to produce electricity at peak times.<br />
So the peak firm supply capacity, without allowing for any downtime for power station maintenance or breakdown during the winter months,, is much less.<br />
In fact , it goes from 70GW at the moment to 74GW in 2035.<br />
42% (31GW) of this firm capacity is storage and interconnectors, i.e. electricity from abroad, arriving by undersea cables.<br />
So we will have only 43GW of firm generation capacity in this country, considerably less than our current peak demand of around 50GW.<br />
Fine you may say, we are getting more efficient in our use of electricity, and we are - at least some of the readers of this blog! - shifting when we use electricity away from peak times.<br />
But we also have an intention to phase out petrol and diesel cars by 2040- and each new electric car requires about 3kW of additional capacity - that's 90 GW for 30 million vehicles.<br />
Should electric vehicles be allowed to charge at all outside trough demand times, say midnight to 6am?<br />
They are at the moment...tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-41325706553645631142018-01-25T17:37:00.000+00:002018-01-25T17:37:10.440+00:00December UK Electricity Production by Fuel Type including renewables<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUbsyO4SBQEi24Lr5PEZL7HusGCRzvWxvaRRHVT0C8SYfTFV0_h6JQhff7oYSYRb_QQeKeJnBBeRmDiauIjX8wP49RyU2i-hIEWKySRchcfusgbP4B7HQcc6Qk5n2sgl5Irmna0C3A0fI/s1600/December+Production+2017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="610" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUbsyO4SBQEi24Lr5PEZL7HusGCRzvWxvaRRHVT0C8SYfTFV0_h6JQhff7oYSYRb_QQeKeJnBBeRmDiauIjX8wP49RyU2i-hIEWKySRchcfusgbP4B7HQcc6Qk5n2sgl5Irmna0C3A0fI/s640/December+Production+2017.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
December's <a href="http://gridwatch.co.uk/?src=lk01">UK electricity production graph</a> makes interesting reading:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Peak demand was 50.6 GW, reflecting the gradual decline in peak demand over the last ten years or so</li>
<li>Wind (green) made a useful albeit sporadic contribution</li>
<li>Solar PV (yellow) was negligible, and nonexistent at peak times.</li>
<li>There were several high-peak-demand days with almost no contribution from wind</li>
<li>Gas (light brown) is now taking virtually all of the strain of meeting fluctuating demand as coal is phased out</li>
<li>Average demand at 36.5 GW is 14GW below peak demand giving an opportunity cost of not having domestic demand response of £110 billion at present non-carbon firm supply capacity cost (i.e. nuclear). That's £70 million a week that could go towards the NHS for 30 years.</li>
</ul>
<div>
So - if you don't want carbon and you don't want nuclear, you had better start getting a few of your friends to flatten their demand!</div>
<div>
The good new is that 10% of consumers are already aware of this as an issue, including PV owners, those on economy 7, and a few hundred thousand geeks like you and me. So we are well and truly on the adoption curve - but with a long way to go -so get time-shifting.</div>
tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-18562604410920346012018-01-23T10:32:00.002+00:002018-01-23T10:34:18.313+00:00Would you Pay your Supplier for Greater Reliability?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiGlASXUy3OcmjvMr5KuuUee_Uv-7NjuUeQb-F9qcfTXJRtWO9emstNaEQIDyc3Ff9KeXTq9LvSVlBuBpn-K_O0kjGUwZzhUGTwm9fR3PMDvadmXkIarmEfzTMYlQIQUo4YvwPob0RFQI/s1600/centrica+resilience.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="443" data-original-width="1226" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiGlASXUy3OcmjvMr5KuuUee_Uv-7NjuUeQb-F9qcfTXJRtWO9emstNaEQIDyc3Ff9KeXTq9LvSVlBuBpn-K_O0kjGUwZzhUGTwm9fR3PMDvadmXkIarmEfzTMYlQIQUo4YvwPob0RFQI/s640/centrica+resilience.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Centrica, who own and operate gas-fired power stations in UK, are now offering a <a href="https://www.centricabusinesssolutions.com/resilience">"resilience" service </a>at addional cost.<br />
The implication of this is a two-class service; a less reliable one that you get from just paying your normal bill, and a more reliable one that you get by paying their "resilience" fee.<br />
There are many possible causes for power failure, and not all of them are under the control of the generating companies or the suppliers (Centrica is in both of these categories).<br />
Is there a subtext or hidden mesage here? Centrica have been warning for some time that the strain on existing gas-fired power stations is growing, as they are required to cope with ever larger swings in demand.<br />
Unless we as consumers are aware of this and take appropriate demand response action, we will be faced increasingly with costs of this sort.<br />
So keep spreading the word - <a href="https://issuu.com/theintelligentplug/docs/its_time_to_chop_the_peak__100315v3">chop the peak , fill the trough!</a>tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-36369825155412049872018-01-10T10:52:00.000+00:002018-01-10T10:57:28.742+00:00Into the Forest!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu0sGS3Gng2Amnw-rmhTIHNQyiCKfVdnPvLTMbdcgm1-b4roaYmsLWvpQ_cel5ZbF7PR2d35LkhOl3JG_Hv5vnn9WepuAeurghJtCjN2-ClyXoW-DEt2sZDNsLKvHgJV2h3_0rPBkebmo/s1600/into_the_forest___free_stock_image_by_kevron2001-d5hcli7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="900" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu0sGS3Gng2Amnw-rmhTIHNQyiCKfVdnPvLTMbdcgm1-b4roaYmsLWvpQ_cel5ZbF7PR2d35LkhOl3JG_Hv5vnn9WepuAeurghJtCjN2-ClyXoW-DEt2sZDNsLKvHgJV2h3_0rPBkebmo/s400/into_the_forest___free_stock_image_by_kevron2001-d5hcli7.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Last night I watched "Into the Forest", a Canadian film set in the near future, which hypothesises a lengthy (over a year) power outage covering much or possibly all of North America.<br />
Such an event is not as far-fetched as it might at first appear. Major outages covering large areas are well known if not frequent events. They are however extremely rare so far in UK. Planned outages in the three day week of 1974 is the nearest most of us have come to experiencing life with no electricity.<br />
The two heroines in the film end up burning their house down to create the impression that they have died in the fire, to avoid unwelcome attention from roving predatory gangs or individuals. They go to live in a hollow tree with their new-born baby.<br />
Such a situation is undesirable to put it mildly.<br />
Hiow do we avoid it?<br />
One way is to reduce the strain on our electricity supply system, by reducing peak demand.<br />
<br />
So keep shifting your big loads into the trough!<br />
<br />
Happy New Year.tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-36751796121956852652017-12-21T12:53:00.000+00:002017-12-21T12:55:30.369+00:00UK Peak Demand is still on a Downward Trend<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxSMAqLr3UmlQ46mfMKSVqnmd_08SsWFXnnkjoDbOJCvU2hD30HyMxZ3cm7mF7do0xzypTu77z4QJWAWB7UDffCodqTYfVv4hqma2GkBbtimrI1cGGjbyOYZfRJPKyUmWpZWCR9x_G6r0/s1600/triad+demand+trend.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="435" data-original-width="819" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxSMAqLr3UmlQ46mfMKSVqnmd_08SsWFXnnkjoDbOJCvU2hD30HyMxZ3cm7mF7do0xzypTu77z4QJWAWB7UDffCodqTYfVv4hqma2GkBbtimrI1cGGjbyOYZfRJPKyUmWpZWCR9x_G6r0/s400/triad+demand+trend.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">From Regen SW <a href="http://mailchi.mp/regensw/l9cjw0nchr-283709?e=34ba7a5bb2" target="_blank">Graphic of the month</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The good news? - Peak UK demand is falling - thanks mainly to more efficient appliances, as well as the observance of triads by - in the main - large industrial users.<br />
<br />
The bad news? - At home we largely ignore the stress on the system at peak times, and merrily carry on dishwashing and doing laundry at peak times - stop it!tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-45897905617772673982017-12-19T18:29:00.000+00:002017-12-19T18:29:21.085+00:00What is important, cost or reliability of supply?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju9SZm9UoL2lkqmKxeSYjuGFyr9m7pnIDaE-ix4R8-NPBUcYCSC0VQjZzUYMrwQ6j2PQrMeFMmzw9gnPu4zACvsGH1dOluYHJfKTcVUer0qJx4N3U6sRmNC8SnQt9tvYFAb0vuPBXTw6U/s1600/reliability+of+electricity+in+Africa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="430" data-original-width="658" height="417" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju9SZm9UoL2lkqmKxeSYjuGFyr9m7pnIDaE-ix4R8-NPBUcYCSC0VQjZzUYMrwQ6j2PQrMeFMmzw9gnPu4zACvsGH1dOluYHJfKTcVUer0qJx4N3U6sRmNC8SnQt9tvYFAb0vuPBXTw6U/s640/reliability+of+electricity+in+Africa.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">From <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/only-40-of-africans-enjoy-a-reliable-electricity-supply-report-finds" target="_blank">World Economic Forum</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Like the island of Mauritius, UK has an electricity supply system with reliability of well over 99.9%. This is unheard of in most of the less developed world.<br />
Despite our lax and irresponsible use of electricity, we continue to throw money at the problem of peak demand.<br />
In countries where this is not an option, the lights go out on a regular basis, and people suffer. Vaccines and other medicines are damaged through lack of refrigeration, children can't study, vital communication systems are disrupted.<br />
Will we wait until we are in the same boat before we do enough in UK to flatten our demand?<br />
Its up to all of us to raise awareness.<br />
<br />tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-38031325573882556602017-12-01T14:32:00.000+00:002017-12-12T15:55:06.672+00:00Firm Frequency Response - what is it and why do we need it?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" data-original-height="202" data-original-width="484" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZsYeaXZ50IC9_bNwFGVBIrqaF9pwfXER_cv4i6Q3GcrOXwCu6hKeXQsRbAAjP39f8s8cEbDCu8eKP09oQRbc7uxc4_mffZUXiTPr-2XAk4CYkbNXnb0tF71lomk8WshDFZdf5dWFDbeU/s320/frequency-grid.jpg" width="320" /><a href="https://kiwidemandresponse.wordpress.com/2013/12/11/frequency-response-the-grids-first-defence/" target="_blank">Kiwi Power</a></div>
<br />
<br />
Our electricity system operates at a frequency of 50Hz, within limits as above.<br />
Currently (no pun intended!) the National Grid is calling for suppliers to quote for fast response generation and/or storage to keep the frequency within its narrow boundaries.<br />
<br />
There are two ways of looking at this: either<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li> it is a commendable and efficient way to address peak capacity issues, only paying for generation that is actually needed</li>
</ul>
<div>
or</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>it is an admission of failure to communicate to the consuming public the value of relatively modest changes in behaviour that would substantially reduce peak demand and render such projects unnecessary</li>
</ul>
<div>
Which view you take will depend on your faith in humanity's ability to respond effectively to calls for responsible action, or your belief in a centralised top-down system that makes no serious effort to raise public awareness of the value of behaviour change.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
We are in danger of being reduced to cargo-cult status, where collectively we receive benefits from above that we can neither influence nor understand.</div>
<br />
<br />tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-34024759373150093642017-09-29T16:15:00.003+01:002017-12-12T16:07:03.240+00:00Share of Renewables in Total Generation Looking Good - How can it be Increased Further?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFWSSKwU_YhjFa2uZIke0QYLwi92FacHxhiahJVRK-lQF0fW1hG7VupLR7zUrE-iEc4joTJIvT5phL-eIwfye_kM4ICn3vsJ17clRQrlJhqFOMhmA2w7Pl6NmLD9a3JjOuFr9ZQ1_OR_4/s1600/Regen+graphic+renewables+share+of+generation+290917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="420" data-original-width="654" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFWSSKwU_YhjFa2uZIke0QYLwi92FacHxhiahJVRK-lQF0fW1hG7VupLR7zUrE-iEc4joTJIvT5phL-eIwfye_kM4ICn3vsJ17clRQrlJhqFOMhmA2w7Pl6NmLD9a3JjOuFr9ZQ1_OR_4/s640/Regen+graphic+renewables+share+of+generation+290917.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
We reached 30% of electricity from renewables in quarter 2 of 2017 - thank you Regen SW for your Graphic of the Month. But this is only for one quarter - the average for 2016 was 24%.<br />
<br />
Will we get to 30% for a whole year by 2020, which is the national target?<br />
<br />
The seasonal variations in wind and solar PV suggest that what is most needed is more wind power to boost Q4 and Q1 generation, when solar is at its lowest, and wind is statistically higher.Reading from the graph, this would require wind going from around 12% to 18% of generation in those quarters, a 50% increase in wind generation.<br />
<br />
You can forget storage as a means of ironing out seasonal variation - a battery large enough to store electricity in sufficient quantity to shift supply for several months would be very big, even more expensive than more nuclear power.<br />
<br />
Any ideas on how to shift consumption from winter to summer? More energy efficient homes would help!<br />
<br />tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-58356871202728034282017-09-04T12:24:00.002+01:002017-12-12T16:08:20.963+00:00Falling Carbon Intensity - Can we Keep it Falling?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd17IpgSmTZujXrwDm8aQkJmtlIRf-WOu3bfSJ22ASm3-GNX5qPjnoiXvps9ExTVRYt05fu-xVEQ5LA7puWhaK_AuN4llJqpqqwQN4jTHd6p3xWzwXjB8M6KBUcqfbP1PeRyd9cDItHX0/s1600/Carbon+intensity+of+electricity.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="509" data-original-width="580" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd17IpgSmTZujXrwDm8aQkJmtlIRf-WOu3bfSJ22ASm3-GNX5qPjnoiXvps9ExTVRYt05fu-xVEQ5LA7puWhaK_AuN4llJqpqqwQN4jTHd6p3xWzwXjB8M6KBUcqfbP1PeRyd9cDItHX0/s320/Carbon+intensity+of+electricity.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
As this excellent graphic from <a href="https://www.regensw.co.uk/pages/subsites/" target="_blank">Regen SW </a>shows, we have successfully halved the carbon intensity of our electricity supply over the last 25 years.<br />
Much of this was due to the substitution of gas for coal in the 1990's. A further, but lesser drop is due to the more recent substitution of renewables for coal, over the last five years.<br />
But how do we keep this rate of progress up?<br />
It's not good enough just to say with more renewables - they are intermittent and do not occur in reliable quantity when we most need them, on cold dark winter evenings.<br />
The answer is to shift when we use electricity, away from peak times and into times of low demand and when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing.<br />
As a first step, you innovators and early adopters already know what to do... and to tell your friends!tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-22261903335176018972017-08-10T16:45:00.000+01:002017-12-12T16:09:41.623+00:00How Fast are our Consumption and Generation Patterns Changing?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEaEQCCbbR_M6oZZKQNvF2BXDwT-Zt4bHD47FNsAdBDltq3slBqMy__xyqRW9vDFdks_6PNi1UxYqjNa7iWSWEIbhunIGgiNBjdjIYArxA5W4luB2k-UzxhTO3AOAGm5h7BsSErz2aeDY/s1600/long+term+quarterly+averages.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="530" data-original-width="1007" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEaEQCCbbR_M6oZZKQNvF2BXDwT-Zt4bHD47FNsAdBDltq3slBqMy__xyqRW9vDFdks_6PNi1UxYqjNa7iWSWEIbhunIGgiNBjdjIYArxA5W4luB2k-UzxhTO3AOAGm5h7BsSErz2aeDY/s640/long+term+quarterly+averages.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Oh dear, another set of <a href="http://nationalgrid.stephenmorley.org/" target="_blank">graphs</a>!<br />
<br />
The good news is I only want to look at the right hand side one - you can see how since 2013, coal has plummeted, and gas has more modestly increased. Nuclear has stayed more or less constant, solar and wind have increased but are still a very small part of the total.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrctQMB5BJ2UejnX1G2CRar4W5nuYROtMzIkby5bk61CHV_JOQ4fo9XtcenC5zFROujUHNmrPtpWNind0pvcBBHX26F7lBMSepmVM21kdXB9FXkB7wFLGaQk1TI0qUTdTPU-dSkO8rzKY/s1600/total+long+term+quarterly+averages.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="489" data-original-width="246" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrctQMB5BJ2UejnX1G2CRar4W5nuYROtMzIkby5bk61CHV_JOQ4fo9XtcenC5zFROujUHNmrPtpWNind0pvcBBHX26F7lBMSepmVM21kdXB9FXkB7wFLGaQk1TI0qUTdTPU-dSkO8rzKY/s320/total+long+term+quarterly+averages.jpg" width="160" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCf0n6rTFwDTOzD1xTFfCG8Ta9m2x8g-3cxofkqNZq88m7U_4PSxxzhG3Usp2esqLZqHgC3izFGb4J_3ZpHgPmKgJJxHEkkzluOs0rzXUBzIzcJb3tpKLwq0JvvVBAwE1RD7eE-Myv98c/s1600/key.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="53" data-original-width="497" height="34" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCf0n6rTFwDTOzD1xTFfCG8Ta9m2x8g-3cxofkqNZq88m7U_4PSxxzhG3Usp2esqLZqHgC3izFGb4J_3ZpHgPmKgJJxHEkkzluOs0rzXUBzIzcJb3tpKLwq0JvvVBAwE1RD7eE-Myv98c/s320/key.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Here's another perspective - the modest decline in overall demand is accentuated in total fossil consumption - i.e. coal and gas together have declined faster than consumption, because renewables, nuclear and interconnectors have all increased.<br />
<br />
For the green renewable line to go up further and faster we will need much more demand side response - so get time-shifting and tell your friends!tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-14132379262659706262017-08-07T15:30:00.000+01:002017-08-07T15:37:28.893+01:00Solar Share of Generation in Europe is Plateauing<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaGGndlTgFOdsY0iYIX4VUR2goSIZXJmyDsD1FGXwt0duk8gO6F8Zza4nwLHK37Dx0DLiUtIDumXDnFOCVL1HexNoQZi7mz2KqxtL4JMbe41RL06cXsSSfUGGYClHsNr2vwE9C1xZUfLM/s1600/solar+share.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="372" data-original-width="347" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaGGndlTgFOdsY0iYIX4VUR2goSIZXJmyDsD1FGXwt0duk8gO6F8Zza4nwLHK37Dx0DLiUtIDumXDnFOCVL1HexNoQZi7mz2KqxtL4JMbe41RL06cXsSSfUGGYClHsNr2vwE9C1xZUfLM/s640/solar+share.jpg" width="595" /></a></div>
<br />
The share of electricity generation in countries known for their keen pursuit of it in the past, notably Germany, has plateaued.<br />
<br />
In Germany's case, at 6% of generation. Sunny Greece and Italy are marginally better at around 8%.<br />
Germany has a moratorium on nuclear power, but this has not caused an increase in solar electricity generation.<br />
<br />
There are technical as well as political reasons for this.<br />
<br />
It gets progressively harder to increase solar's share of generation, particularly in countries where the supply and demand are substantially out of sync with each other, as is the case in Northern Europe.<br />
<br />
The answer? More time-shifting of domestic demand of course!<br />
<br />
<br />tomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672745318613989709.post-52460790703811386912017-08-03T12:42:00.000+01:002017-08-03T12:51:29.249+01:00Hi , I'm Tom Langdon-Davies from a farm near Exeter in sunny Devon, South West England. I have worked all over the world for energy companies, renewable and conventional. Now it's time for me to see what I can do to raise awareness of the easy things we can do to make our energy more sustainable. Thanks for reading. Please help me by commenting!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0xXnMR_1GRHng4EBQ1iHFUh0QiLjyfCs_iRGkIkgSOJ6YCpqDUCkxAyWnQsGq5ar8lr3qErSMONnz-Mr44m4V4jJOkJn3BNvUhRe50s6jLNcg25rCMe5_cmvit9OZ5w_HR9Cqpxjnj0M/s1600/Tom+Langdon-Davies+and+Nigel+Turvey+cropped.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="250" data-original-width="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0xXnMR_1GRHng4EBQ1iHFUh0QiLjyfCs_iRGkIkgSOJ6YCpqDUCkxAyWnQsGq5ar8lr3qErSMONnz-Mr44m4V4jJOkJn3BNvUhRe50s6jLNcg25rCMe5_cmvit9OZ5w_HR9Cqpxjnj0M/s1600/Tom+Langdon-Davies+and+Nigel+Turvey+cropped.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
After a brief spell seismic surveying around Europe and Africa, I ran the Natural Energy Centre in London - that was back in 1977, and we did it all. Wind, solar, heat pumps, biomass. After that I did a stint at the Electricity Council in Millbank , encouraging night-time battery charging, back when the UK electricity supply industry was still nationalised.<br />
We moved to Devon in 1984, installed solar PV, wood-burning stoves, and I got a grant to put in a biomass supply system at Occombe Farm in Torbay.<br />
Devon and Cornwall are now blessed with more wind and solar electricity than they can use - unless we start to seriously shift when we use it, from times of peak demand to times of trough demand, and also into times when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing.<br />
Please take a look at the blogs I have written over the last two years - and comment on them or publicise them. Let me know if I can do the same for you!<br />
Thankstomgld1http://www.blogger.com/profile/12873006265474206553noreply@blogger.com0